An explosion in the number of people aged over 85 over the coming years will put ‘profound’ pressure on health and social care services, research has shown.

The number of over 85s will increase by one third by 2020 putting extra burden on the NHS and social services, the study found. It could mean almost two million people are aged over 85 within ten years almost nine in ten of them are expected to have at least three diseases.

Only one in ten are expected to live in institutional care and the majority will live alone with ‘implications’ for social services, the researchers from Newcastle University said.

The figures suggest there will be a pensions black hole as there will soon be fewer than three people of working age for each pensioner and the government intends to increase the state pension age from 65 to 68. The projections were based on the Newcastle 85+ Study looked at 1,042 people born in 1921 and registered with GPs in Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside. The researchers wrote in the British Medical Journal online: “If the data are extrapolated to the future, much larger, populations of 85 year olds in developed countries, implications for health and social care and the resources needed to provide these are profound.”

Although most of the over 85s in the study rated their own health as good or excellent compared with others the same age, at least 50 per cent of them had heart disease, or high blood pressure, or osteoarthritis or cataracts. Almost nine in ten had at least three diseases.

Lead author Joanna Collerton said: “Perhaps the most striking findings were the low levels of disability and people living in institutional care, and positive self rated health (compared with others of the same age) despite high levels of disease and impairment.”

However when the subjects had health assessments it was found that many had undiagnosed conditions including high blood pressure, heart disease, depression and dementia. One fifth of those studied had spent time in hospital over the past three months and 95 per cent had been taking medication within the last month. The findings should be used by officials to plan the health and social care services of the future in order to cope with the ageing population, the authors said.

However the authors said that the people in the study may represent a ‘healthy elite’ because they were born at a time when the life expectancy was 61 years for men and 68 years for women. So the very fact they have lived beyond 85 means they are healthier than the majority of the population.

Andrew Harrop, Head of Policy at Age Concern and Help the Aged, said: “The fact that people are living longer lives is cause for celebration, but the growth of an older population will also mean significant challenges for policy makers in terms of funding and investing in the sort of services which an ageing society will rely on.

“As this study shows, more funding for research into the diseases associated with ageing – from incontinence to dementia – is needed. Finding better ways of preventing, managing and treating these conditions will increase the number of years of good health hand in hand with lifespan.

“The sharp increase in the number of people aged 80 and over predicted over the next years also makes a powerful case for a thorough reform of the creaking care system, which is struggling to satisfy the current needs of our older population.”

Taken from the Telegraph